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Our Blog

Economy

By Bevan Graham
on 13 September 2017 08:59 a.m.
Chief Economist Bevan Graham and special guest (David Farrar Kiwiblog, Curia Market Research) provide a preview of the 2017 General Election. Together they discuss the current state of the polls, what issues seem to be the most compelling for voters, the key seats to watch on election night, possible coalition configurations, the key policy positions of the parties and how markets are likely to react after the event.
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By Bevan Graham
on 22 August 2017 07:47 a.m.
A key theme for this year was the seemingly inevitable divergence in monetary policy among the key developed economies as the year progressed. In our outlook series at the start of the year we warned about not being overly swayed by the direction of headline inflation. This is because base effects were likely to see headline measures move higher as prior falls in commodity prices fell out of the annual calculation and were replaced by higher commodity prices.
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By Bevan Graham
on 10 August 2017 10:49 a.m.
The RBNZ left interest rates unchanged today and resisted temptation to turn dovish following recent developments. The Bank is firmly focussed on the medium term outlook and in that respect capacity constraints are increasing and inflation will head higher in time. That means the next move in interest rates is up, but not for a while.
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By Bevan Graham
on 03 July 2017 08:46 a.m.
The question I have been asked most frequently since the Great Recession is various takes on “Will central banks ever be able to end all of this extraordinary stimulus, and how will they get out of it?” The answer has always been the same: “Yes and cautiously"
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By Bevan Graham
on 15 June 2017 11:52 a.m.
Two key pieces of economic news out this morning with the US Fed raising its benchmark interest rate and March-quarter GDP growth numbers for New Zealand released.
  • Watch the video for my thoughts.
  •  
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 12 June 2017 09:43 a.m.
There seems to be a shortage of political judgement is the UK Conservative party. First, then pro-EU Prime Minister David Cameron calls a referendum of the UK's membership of European Union. Fail. Then, new Prime Minister Theresa May calls an election aimed at strengthening her hand in the lead-in to the start of Brexit negotiations and to crush the Labour Party. Epic fail.
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By Bevan Graham
on 31 May 2017 04:49 p.m.
It’s been a 'mixed' few weeks for the US economy and the outlook for US monetary policy has become a tad murkier as market expectations of the number of Fed rate hikes this year have waxed and waned. At the time of writing, markets are pricing in about one-and a half rate increases by year-end, 10-year Treasuries are at the bottom of their recent range and the US dollar index (DXY) is at its weakest since before the election in November last year.  
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 25 May 2017 03:21 p.m.
Highlights
  • The New Zealand economy is expected to grow an average 3.1% per annum over the next five years
  • Solid growth underpins rising budget surpluses and falling debt as a percentage of GDP
  • Flagship announcements in Budget 2017 include a family incomes package, details of future infrastructure investment, and higher social spending across health, education, and law and order
  • This budget is fiscally stimulatory over the next two years, reinforcing our expectation that the next move in interest rates is up
  • The NZ Government’s bond tender programme for 2017/18 is unchanged at $7.0 billion
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 19 May 2017 07:08 a.m.
The Government will have been looking forward to Budget 2017 (Thursday May 25th) for a long time. They have navigated various fiscal challenges, including the Global Financial Crisis, and a string of seemingly never-ending natural disasters, including earthquakes in Christchurch and Kaikoura and more recently flooding in Edgecumbe.  
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 11 May 2017 08:48 a.m.
As was universally expected the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.75% today.  
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By Bevan Graham
on 08 May 2017 10:09 a.m.
Emmanuel Macron’s win in the French Presidential election is good news for France and the Eurozone. Mr Macron appears to have secured around 66% of the vote to 34% for the National Front’s Marine Le Pen. 
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 27 April 2017 09:21 a.m.
Further light has been shed on US President Donald Trump's much vaunted tax plan, though specific details are still scant. The proposal includes reducing the statutory corporate tax rate from 35% to 15%. The proposal also plans to cut the so-called ‘pass through’ rate, the rate that mostly small firms pay via the individual tax code. A ‘one-off’ repatriation tax of 10% is also proposed. Absent is any suggestion of a border tax.
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By Bevan Graham
on 20 April 2017 12:05 p.m.
March quarter inflation came in higher than expected, mostly due to higher food prices. The headline annual rate of 2.2% is the highest in five years and back into the top half of the target band. But it’s core inflation that is important for monetary policy and that’s suggesting the RBNZ still has time up their sleeve before they need to raise interest rates.  
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 07 April 2017 11:00 a.m.
We have been urging caution on the reflation story.  Much of the increase in inflation recently has been driven by higher commodity prices and largely contained to headline inflation.  The conditions for genuine reflation, of the sort that central banks will choose to act on, are only met when core inflation is judged to be not only moving higher, but moving higher on a sustained basis.  Many developed economies are still well-short of this mark.  
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By Bevan Graham
on 14 March 2017 10:56 a.m.
From our recent Investment Outlook event in Auckland... Talking through the key global and New Zealand economic themes for 2017 and implications for investment markets.
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By Bevan Graham
on 13 March 2017 02:21 p.m.
A busy week ahead in markets with three key things to focus on: the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Dutch general election and fourth quarter 2016 GDP data for New Zealand.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 02 March 2017 10:22 a.m.
On Monday interest rate futures markets were pricing a 35% chance of a rate hike from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at its March meeting. That seemed to us to be too low. Today, markets put that probability at 80%.  That seems to us to be too high. If you’re now thinking I’m never happy – you’re probably right.
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By Bevan Graham
on 23 February 2017 08:50 a.m.
Politics always has the potential to unsettle and unnerve markets, even if it’s just temporarily. 2016 saw ‘Brexit’ and Trump, and into 2017 populist and nationalist political forces are seemingly on the rise everywhere.
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By Bevan Graham
on 16 February 2017 08:17 a.m.
Since the election markets have focused on the pro-growth fiscal and regulatory aspects of President Trump’s policy agenda, and have been largely immune (bemused?) by much of the news (noise?) being tweeted (or is it twittered?) out of Washington (or is it Manhattan?).
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 07 February 2017 12:40 p.m.
One of the surprises of 2016 was the stability of the Chinese economy. Relative calm in financial markets along with a good dose of policy stimulus contributed to a strengthening in economic activity as the year progressed, to the extent that GDP growth came in bang on target for the calendar year.
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By Bevan Graham
on 19 January 2017 09:09 a.m.
December inflation data is expected to show annual headline inflation back inside the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ’s) 1-3% target band, the first time in it will have been inside the band since September 2014. Such an outcome will more than likely see the RBNZ confirm the easing cycle is over when it releases its next Monetary Policy Statement on February 9th.  The big question for markets now is how long will it be before we see an interest rate increase? The best answer to that right now is “it depends”.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 20 December 2016 08:22 a.m.
What a year that was. Looking back now, 2016 seems like the year during which the world appeared likely to end on a number of occasions, but didn’t. 
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By Bevan Graham
on 06 December 2016 08:07 a.m.
In a year of political surprises, the biggest surprise (at least for us Kiwis) ended up being home-grown. John Key’s decision to resign the leadership of the New Zealand National Party after 10 years and the Premiership after eight years adds considerable colour to the 2017 general election. An election is due in New Zealand by November 2017.
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By Bevan Graham
on 05 December 2016 10:06 a.m.
Since the Global Financial Crisis much attention around the world has focused on the concept of full employment – both where it is for any given economy and how quickly it would be achieved.  
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By Bevan Graham
on 18 November 2016 07:04 a.m.
As I said on election night, history is littered with populist politicians who became pragmatic leaders. One of the questions immediately post the election was whether it would be Donald Trump the populist who took up residence in 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue or Donald Trump the pragmatist.  
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By Bevan Graham
on 09 November 2016 10:43 a.m.
The 2016 US Presidential election has been the most brutal and divisive campaigns in living memory. It came at a time of significant unease in the US about lack of economic progress, stagnant real income growth, rising job insecurity, and a serious questioning of the United States’ place in the world.
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By Bevan Graham
on 04 November 2016 07:19 a.m.
I tend to think of myself as a bit of a political junkie – generally speaking there’s nothing better than a good election. But I have to admit I’m pretty much over this one. This has been a somewhat bizarre campaign characterised by two of the most disliked presidential candidates in US electoral history. It has made the election campaign all about who was going to get to November 8th as the least disliked candidate. That’s not a particularly lofty aspiration and has contributed to a campaign that has focused largely on misogyny and inappropriate use of emails.
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By Bevan Graham
on 26 October 2016 06:34 a.m.
While the US Presidential election has the world’s political attention, there is another important event unfolding in Italy. The upcoming referendum on constitutional reform doesn’t have quite the same significance as the US election but it is important for the future of Italy, the world’s 8th largest economy, and has broader implications for the stability of the Eurozone.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 17 October 2016 12:30 p.m.
We don’t expect the European Central Bank (ECB) will do anything new following its meeting later this week, but the messaging will be watched for any clues as to the Bank’s future monetary policy intentions, especially in respect to its asset purchase program (APP).
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 07 October 2016 06:19 a.m.
The US Federal Reserve, along with many other central banks, has a pretty challenging job right now given uncertainties about economic growth and, in particular, the future path of inflation.
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By Bevan Graham
on 16 September 2016 08:27 a.m.
The last week has seen a re-rating of global monetary policy expectations, particularly in Europe.  The European Central Bank was less dovish than expected following its September meeting and the balanced interpretation of recent various FOMC member comments is that the Committee is  keen to push on with the normalisation of interest rates, though they will remain cautious.  Of the major developed central banks only the Bank of Japan continues to flag the possibility of further action along with the Bank of England in the wake of the Brexit referendum.
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By AMP Capital NZ Investment Team
on 22 August 2016 11:47 a.m.
After a bit of a washout moment earlier this year, a distinct rise in optimism on emerging market (EM) equities has been seen. The renewed sense of optimism towards emerging market equities is something to keep an eye on if it gets too carried away, but for now a virtuous cycle is playing through.
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By Bevan Graham
on 12 August 2016 12:18 p.m.
Poor growth in labour productivity has been a defining feature of the US economic recovery since the Great Recession. While we’ve acknowledged it for some time now, that has come with a patiently optimistic outlook. If that optimism remains unrealised, it will soon be time to worry a bit more.
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By Bevan Graham
on 11 August 2016 09:34 a.m.
Bevan Graham and Warren Potter comment on today’s OCR decision.
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By Bevan Graham
on 09 August 2016 07:16 a.m.
Brazil will be in the spotlight for the next couple of weeks as the spectacle that is the Olympics unfolds. Of course Brazil has already been under the spotlight for a while as one of the worst performing emerging economies over the last couple of years.
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By Bevan Graham
on 26 July 2016 12:35 p.m.
Last week the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) signalled more easing to come while the European Central Bank (ECB) reiterated its “readiness, willingness and ability to act”, should it be necessary.  Minutes from the latest Reserve Bank of Australia meeting indicated the door is wide open to another rate cut in August.  And while the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, it signalled a cut was likely in August in the post-Brexit wake.  This week the Bank of Japan is expected to ease monetary policy further and the US Federal Reserve is expected to hold fire on further interest rate normalisation.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 18 July 2016 09:14 a.m.
Growth in the Chinese economy was stable into the second quarter of the year, though there are signs of mounting headwinds, especially with respect to private sector investment.  Further policy easing seems inevitable despite receding deflationary pressures.
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By Bevan Graham
on 11 July 2016 08:41 a.m.
The US labour market bounced back with broad-based jobs growth in June, alleviating concerns of an economic slowdown in the United States. 
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 25 June 2016 12:46 p.m.
Britain’s decision to exit the European Union (“Brexit”), followed swiftly by UK Prime Minister David Cameron’s resignation, creates considerable economic and political uncertainty. It will be some time before we know all the answers. The negative market reaction to the narrow victory (52% vs 48%) for the “Leave” camp has been exacerbated by markets going into the referendum expecting exactly the opposite outcome, a narrow “Remain” victory.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 20 June 2016 08:00 a.m.
It seemed to me there were always three certainties attached to the UK referendum on its membership of the European Union: the polls would close up as we got closer to the event, financial markets would reflect the uncertainty and nervousness, and that we would see an over-reaction in markets on the day, whatever the outcome.  
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 14 June 2016 07:59 a.m.
It’s been a bit of a roller coaster ride for the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) rate hike expectations over the last few weeks. Following all the volatility and angst at the start of this year, markets had moved to price in virtually no chance of a rate hike this year. Then as some of the activity data started to improve and following various statements and speeches from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants, a summer (June or July) rate hike looked to be on again.  But then came THAT payrolls report with markets now not pricing a full 25 basis points (bps) hike until December, and even then only just.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 09 June 2016 08:10 a.m.
As expected the RBNZ left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25% this morning but retained an easing bias. There is one further cut flagged in the interest rate projections, though we still think it is only discomfort in the level of the exchange rate that may see that cut delivered.
> Read more
By AMP Capital NZ Investment Team
on 07 June 2016 11:35 a.m.
As the US Dollar (USD) has strengthened in recent weeks, its strength against the Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY) logically has responded in kind and the CNY fell, moving from about 6.45 at the end of March to about 6.58 at the end of May (yes, that’s a ‘big’ move for the USDCNY). The latest “devaluation” of the CNY is driving some commentators to dredge up memories of last year where all sorts of fears about a rapid devaluation and capital flight were stirred up. So what’s the outlook? And will this be a source of volatility for global markets again?
 
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By Bevan Graham
on 07 June 2016 06:35 a.m.
When the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) surprised markets by cutting interest rates in March a further interest rate reduction was built into the interest rate projections.  At that time we suggested it would be strength in the exchange rate that would be the catalyst for that to be delivered, while renewed strength in the housing market was the most likely factor that would lead to its demise.  
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By Bevan Graham
on 26 May 2016 02:08 p.m.
Budget 2016 shows a country in good shape with a set of fiscal accounts that must be the envy of most governments around the world.
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By Bevan Graham
on 24 May 2016 08:35 a.m.
It’s that time of year again. Budgets have become pretty boring and routine things over the last few years, especially in countries that are in pretty good fiscal shape like New Zealand. But that tends to understate their role in the policy framework. Tax policy, spending and public investment are all important parts of the macro-economic framework within which business and households are operating and living.
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By Bevan Graham
on 09 May 2016 11:10 a.m.
Growth in activity in the United Sates has been disappointingly soft since last 2015.  The question is whether the slowdown is real or whether it reflects transitory factors such as continued drag from prior strength in the exchange rate and the market volatility and resulting uncertainty at the start of the year. 
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 04 May 2016 10:50 a.m.
As is usual with the plethora of data that comes with quarterly labour market releases, there was something for everyone in today’s data. That is best exemplified by the seemingly contradictory strong rise in employment, combined with a rise in the unemployment rate. The conclusion is, however, that the New Zealand labour market is in pretty good shape.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 28 April 2016 06:30 a.m.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at its record low level of 2.25% this morning.  We had thought the recent strength in the exchange would be enough to see them pull the trigger.  Clearly not.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 26 April 2016 06:15 a.m.
When the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) surprised the market with its decisions to cut interest rates in March, it flagged another rate cut was on the way. Usually we would say “just do it”, but the decision whether to cut again this week appears more finely balanced. So what are the things the Bank will be thinking about in the lead-up to Thursday…?
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By Bevan Graham
on 18 April 2016 06:02 a.m.
The March 2016 quarter CPI came in a touch higher than market but bang on Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) expectations.  Headline inflation rose 0.2% for an annual rate of 0.4%.  The annual rate is up from 0.1% in the year to December 2015.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 14 April 2016 05:50 a.m.
There have been a number of mysteries in the evolution of the US labour market post the Great Recession. Two that remain, and were only ever going to be resolved as the cycle matured, are the relatively low level of labour productivity growth and the significant trend decline in the labour participation rate.
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By Bevan Graham
on 21 March 2016 12:13 p.m.
March meetings of the world’s major developed central banks are now behind us with one becoming less hawkish, one doing nothing and one firing a bazooka.  That combination has been enough to ease some of the concerns about the outlook for the global economy and has contributed to the recent rally in risk assets.  An important consideration however is with money policy already very easy, how much more effective can central banks be?
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 17 March 2016 02:28 p.m.
December 2015 quarter GDP growth came in at +0.9% for the quarter, stronger than both market and RBNZ expectations that had gravitated to an expected increase of +0.7%. Annual average growth for calendar 2015 was +2.5%.
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By Bevan Graham
on 15 March 2016 12:41 p.m.
With little or no chance of an interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve this week, all eyes will be on the projections for interest rates as indicated by the infamous dots in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).  The March SEP will be released with the FOMC statement following their two day meeting this week.
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By Bevan Graham
on 10 March 2016 12:48 p.m.
While the case for further stimulus has been building, we didn’t think the RBNZ would cut again – at least not yet.  The Bank today took the path of least resistance, and probably least regret, and cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to a new record low of 2.25%. 
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 29 February 2016 12:53 p.m.
If it was just about latest wage and inflation data the FOMC would be tightening in March.  Both are clearly trending higher with the Committee's preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator, now also heading upwards.   A larger than expected rise in January took the annual rate of increase to 1.7%.  The latest FOMC Summary of Economic Projections didn’t expect core PCE inflation to reach 2.0% until 2018.
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By Bevan Graham
on 15 February 2016 01:24 p.m.
Our view is continued improvement in the US labour market will support solid consumer spending and keep the economy on track for another year of modest growth.  Latest labour market indicators including the JOLTs and NFIB surveys remain solid and jobless claims dipped lower again, supporting the argument the weakness of the past few weeks in that series may have been due to seasonal adjustment issues.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 08 February 2016 01:28 p.m.
After another batch of generally soft US data during last week all eyes were on Friday’s payrolls data, particularly for hints about the next move in US interest rates.  As it turned out the signals were mixed.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 19 January 2016 01:09 a.m.
China December data on balance reinforces the story of gradual slowdown with policy support moderating the pace of the slowdown. There is nothing in this set of data to change our view that fears of a hard-landing are overdone.
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By Bevan Graham
on 17 December 2015 09:35 a.m.
Following much anticipation the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates this morning, taking the Fed funds rate from a range of 0.0 - 0.25% to 0.25 - 0.50%.  This ends seven years of zero interest rates and is the first increase in US interest rates since mid-2006.  But where to from here?
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By Bevan Graham
on 10 December 2015 10:30 a.m.
The RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate a further 0.25% this morning, taking it back to the historical low of 2.5%.   But where to from here?
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 07 December 2015 09:19 a.m.
The RBNZ releases its December Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) this Thursday with the big question being whether there is another interest rate cut in the bag.
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By Bevan Graham
on 01 December 2015 12:24 p.m.
Interest rate markets are now pricing in a 74% probability the US Federal Reserve starts the interest rate normalisation process at its 15/16 December meeting.
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By Bevan Graham
on 17 November 2015 12:07 p.m.
Third quarter growth was weaker than expected in both Japan and the Eurozone.  Further monetary easing appears inevitable in both cases.
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By Bevan Graham
on 09 November 2015 10:43 a.m.
After a couple of soft months US jobs growth bounced back with a vengeance in October.
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By Bevan Graham
on 04 November 2015 02:40 p.m.
Today’s release of September quarter Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) data did not disappoint.
> Read more
By AMP Capital NZ Investment Team
on 23 September 2015 12:34 p.m.
The main reason to begin raising interest rates in the US sooner rather than later is because of the healthy employment situation.  But it is also about the ‘emergency’ policy setting that is no longer required.
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By Bevan Graham
on 18 September 2015 07:27 a.m.
Concerns about recent global economic and financial conditions trumped further improvement in the labour market to see the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) take the cautious path and leave US interest rates unchanged today.   In the press conference Chair Janet Yellen signalled, unsurprisingly, that China and emerging markets are central to those concerns.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 17 September 2015 01:39 p.m.
New Zealand June quarter GDP came in weaker than expected at 0.4% quarter on quarter (qoq).  Forecasts were for an increase of 0.6%.  Annual (2.4%) and annual average (3.0%) measures came in closer to expectations thanks to positive revisions.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 14 September 2015 01:35 p.m.
China activity and financial data for August was a mixed bag.  There were some promising signs that policy easing is starting to have an impact but with the important activity indicators still on the weak side.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 10 September 2015 08:47 a.m.
As was universally expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reduced the Official Cash Rate 25 basis points to 2.75% this morning.  
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By Bevan Graham
on 07 September 2015 09:42 a.m.
US August employment data was consistent with “some further improvement” in the labour market. By itself that seems to meet the criteria for ‘lift-off’ for US interest rates in September, but it’s not that simple.
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By Bevan Graham
on 01 September 2015 09:26 a.m.
Last time I wrote about the Fed and upcoming decisions on monetary policy, domestic economic and financial conditions were of paramount importance. All we were waiting on was “some further improvement in the labour market” before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pulled the trigger on the most anticipated US rate hike ever. Life was simple then.
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By Bevan Graham
on 26 August 2015 09:10 a.m.
A significant correction is underway in global equity markets with concerns about emerging market growth, and in particular China, at its epicentre.  We think emerging economy growth fears are overdone and that this correction will eventually sow the seeds of a recovery, but the correction may have further to run in the near term.
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By Bevan Graham
on 18 August 2015 07:21 a.m.
I’ve warned all year about not getting too carried away with heightened expectation of growth in the Eurozone and Japan. That caution has been rewarded with underwhelming June quarter growth for both. Sure Japan beat expectations (-1.6% quarter on quarter (qoq) annualised vs -1.9% expected) but only because the economy contracted less than expected. And while the Eurozone posted modest growth in the quarter (0.3% qoq), it and its three largest constituent parts (Germany, France and Italy) all fell short of expectations.
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By Bevan Graham
on 11 August 2015 11:28 a.m.
The past week has seen important labour market releases out of New Zealand, Australia and the United States – at a critical juncture for monetary policy considerations in each of these countries.
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By Bevan Graham
on 31 July 2015 08:33 a.m.
US real GDP bounced back to a solid +2.3% annual pace in the second quarter of the year, proving that March quarter weakness was largely temporary.    The best part of the result was the +2.9% increase in consumer spending but private sector investment was less exuberant at +0.8%.
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By Bevan Graham
on 30 July 2015 12:37 p.m.
In China we have seen a significant slowdown in the growth of key activity data since late last year. That has seen the Government step up the easing of financial conditions with a total of four interest rate cuts since late last year, along with reductions in the required reserve ratios (RRR) of the banks and a number of fiscal stimulus measures.
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By Bevan Graham
on 30 July 2015 11:48 a.m.
There were only minor tweaks to the FOMC statement this morning when compared to the June statement.  In short the Fed expects to be starting to raise interest rates after it has seen “some further improvement in the labor market”.  Anything less than that would have been inconsistent with Fed Chair Janet Yellen's recent Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to Congress and any number of recent comments from other FOMC members.
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By Bevan Graham
on 30 July 2015 09:51 a.m.
Economic performance among the key emerging economies remains mixed.  India remains the standout emerging economy performer with various economic reforms introduced since the election contributing to what is best described as an economic rejuvenation. 
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By Bevan Graham
on 30 July 2015 09:43 a.m.
The news is not so good in Japan where economic conditions remain more challenging. The economy moved out of recession at the end of 2014 but has since struggled to build any meaningful momentum. The weaker exchange rate is helping the external sector but domestic demand conditions remain weak.
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By Bevan Graham
on 30 July 2015 09:42 a.m.
In the US a number of negative influences (poor weather, a port strike) saw the economy post a small contraction in growth in the first quarter of the year. There has therefore been much focus on the extent to which growth would recover, especially in light of the Fed’s continued signalling that an interest rate increase remains likely this year.
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By Bevan Graham
on 27 July 2015 08:58 a.m.
As was widely expected the RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate 25 basis points to 3.0% this morning, its second consecutive cut.  In a well-balanced statement, the RBNZ signaled that some further easing was likely.
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By Bevan Graham
on 22 July 2015 02:25 p.m.
The Australian economy is still experiencing a very challenging transition with the end of the mining investment boom. 
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By Bevan Graham
on 01 July 2015 08:46 a.m.

Recent weak data on dairy prices, business investment and business confidence has resulted in a significant change in the New Zealand growth and monetary policy outlook.

> Read more