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By Bevan Graham
on 27 July 2015 08:58 a.m.
As was widely expected the RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate 25 basis points to 3.0% this morning, its second consecutive cut.  In a well-balanced statement, the RBNZ signaled that some further easing was likely.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 22 July 2015 02:25 p.m.
The Australian economy is still experiencing a very challenging transition with the end of the mining investment boom. 
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By AMP Capital NZ Investment Team
on 22 July 2015 04:24 p.m.

As this goes to press it looks like Greece will stay in the Eurozone, but if it does exit we believe contagion will be limited to a short term hit to confidence and growth. The rest of the Eurozone is in far better shape now than in 2010-12, in terms of the growth, budget deficits and bank lending

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By AMP Capital NZ Investment Team
on 23 July 2015 05:56 p.m.
New Zealand and global shares had their first negative quarter in three years in the June quarter. In contrast, Australian and emerging market shares have had three negative quarters over the same period. 
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By AMP Capital NZ Investment Team
on 27 July 2015 09:10 a.m.
The move higher in bond yields over the June quarter arrested the relentless grind lower over the previous 15 months. Part of the reason behind the move higher in yields was a recalibration of some extreme investor positioning in core Eurozone bonds.
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By Bevan Graham
on 30 July 2015 09:42 a.m.
In the US a number of negative influences (poor weather, a port strike) saw the economy post a small contraction in growth in the first quarter of the year. There has therefore been much focus on the extent to which growth would recover, especially in light of the Fed’s continued signalling that an interest rate increase remains likely this year.
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By Bevan Graham
on 01 July 2015 08:46 a.m.

Recent weak data on dairy prices, business investment and business confidence has resulted in a significant change in the New Zealand growth and monetary policy outlook.

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By Bevan Graham
on 30 July 2015 09:43 a.m.
The news is not so good in Japan where economic conditions remain more challenging. The economy moved out of recession at the end of 2014 but has since struggled to build any meaningful momentum. The weaker exchange rate is helping the external sector but domestic demand conditions remain weak.
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By AMP Capital NZ Investment Team
on 23 July 2015 11:23 a.m.
It is easy to get caught up in the ongoing drama and lose sight of the fundamentals. Valuations are the key determinant of asset returns over the medium term and our view is bonds are still expensive, developed market and New Zealand shares are fully valued, whereas commodities and emerging markets remain inexpensive relative to longer term trends.
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By AMP Capital NZ Investment Team
on 21 July 2015 11:33 a.m.

The NZD declined sharply over the June quarter, which brings it close to fair value against the USD. Any further falls against the USD would take it into currency ‘overshoot’ territory.

> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 30 July 2015 09:51 a.m.
Economic performance among the key emerging economies remains mixed.  India remains the standout emerging economy performer with various economic reforms introduced since the election contributing to what is best described as an economic rejuvenation. 
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 30 July 2015 11:48 a.m.
There were only minor tweaks to the FOMC statement this morning when compared to the June statement.  In short the Fed expects to be starting to raise interest rates after it has seen “some further improvement in the labor market”.  Anything less than that would have been inconsistent with Fed Chair Janet Yellen's recent Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to Congress and any number of recent comments from other FOMC members.
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By Bevan Graham
on 30 July 2015 12:37 p.m.
In China we have seen a significant slowdown in the growth of key activity data since late last year. That has seen the Government step up the easing of financial conditions with a total of four interest rate cuts since late last year, along with reductions in the required reserve ratios (RRR) of the banks and a number of fiscal stimulus measures.
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By Bevan Graham
on 31 July 2015 08:33 a.m.
US real GDP bounced back to a solid +2.3% annual pace in the second quarter of the year, proving that March quarter weakness was largely temporary.    The best part of the result was the +2.9% increase in consumer spending but private sector investment was less exuberant at +0.8%.
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By AMP Capital NZ Investment Team
on 30 July 2015 09:23 a.m.
There has been 11 periods of  reasonably rapid 1% yield movements in US 10 year bonds over the last two decades, with the median yield increase 114 basis points (bps) occurring over seven months. The following table shows the median and worst performance of investible assets in these instances.
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By Bevan Graham
on 11 August 2015 11:28 a.m.
The past week has seen important labour market releases out of New Zealand, Australia and the United States – at a critical juncture for monetary policy considerations in each of these countries.
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By Bevan Graham
on 18 August 2015 07:21 a.m.
I’ve warned all year about not getting too carried away with heightened expectation of growth in the Eurozone and Japan. That caution has been rewarded with underwhelming June quarter growth for both. Sure Japan beat expectations (-1.6% quarter on quarter (qoq) annualised vs -1.9% expected) but only because the economy contracted less than expected. And while the Eurozone posted modest growth in the quarter (0.3% qoq), it and its three largest constituent parts (Germany, France and Italy) all fell short of expectations.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 26 August 2015 09:10 a.m.
A significant correction is underway in global equity markets with concerns about emerging market growth, and in particular China, at its epicentre.  We think emerging economy growth fears are overdone and that this correction will eventually sow the seeds of a recovery, but the correction may have further to run in the near term.
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By Bevan Graham
on 01 September 2015 09:26 a.m.
Last time I wrote about the Fed and upcoming decisions on monetary policy, domestic economic and financial conditions were of paramount importance. All we were waiting on was “some further improvement in the labour market” before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pulled the trigger on the most anticipated US rate hike ever. Life was simple then.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 07 September 2015 09:42 a.m.
US August employment data was consistent with “some further improvement” in the labour market. By itself that seems to meet the criteria for ‘lift-off’ for US interest rates in September, but it’s not that simple.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 10 September 2015 08:47 a.m.
As was universally expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reduced the Official Cash Rate 25 basis points to 2.75% this morning.  
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By Bevan Graham
on 14 September 2015 01:35 p.m.
China activity and financial data for August was a mixed bag.  There were some promising signs that policy easing is starting to have an impact but with the important activity indicators still on the weak side.
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By Bevan Graham
on 17 September 2015 01:39 p.m.
New Zealand June quarter GDP came in weaker than expected at 0.4% quarter on quarter (qoq).  Forecasts were for an increase of 0.6%.  Annual (2.4%) and annual average (3.0%) measures came in closer to expectations thanks to positive revisions.
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By Bevan Graham
on 18 September 2015 07:27 a.m.
Concerns about recent global economic and financial conditions trumped further improvement in the labour market to see the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) take the cautious path and leave US interest rates unchanged today.   In the press conference Chair Janet Yellen signalled, unsurprisingly, that China and emerging markets are central to those concerns.
> Read more
By AMP Capital NZ Investment Team
on 23 September 2015 12:34 p.m.
The main reason to begin raising interest rates in the US sooner rather than later is because of the healthy employment situation.  But it is also about the ‘emergency’ policy setting that is no longer required.
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By Bevan Graham
on 04 November 2015 02:40 p.m.
Today’s release of September quarter Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) data did not disappoint.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 09 November 2015 10:43 a.m.
After a couple of soft months US jobs growth bounced back with a vengeance in October.
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By Bevan Graham
on 17 November 2015 12:07 p.m.
Third quarter growth was weaker than expected in both Japan and the Eurozone.  Further monetary easing appears inevitable in both cases.
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By Bevan Graham
on 01 December 2015 12:24 p.m.
Interest rate markets are now pricing in a 74% probability the US Federal Reserve starts the interest rate normalisation process at its 15/16 December meeting.
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By Bevan Graham
on 07 December 2015 09:19 a.m.
The RBNZ releases its December Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) this Thursday with the big question being whether there is another interest rate cut in the bag.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 10 December 2015 10:30 a.m.
The RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate a further 0.25% this morning, taking it back to the historical low of 2.5%.   But where to from here?
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 17 December 2015 09:35 a.m.
Following much anticipation the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates this morning, taking the Fed funds rate from a range of 0.0 - 0.25% to 0.25 - 0.50%.  This ends seven years of zero interest rates and is the first increase in US interest rates since mid-2006.  But where to from here?
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 19 January 2016 01:09 a.m.
China December data on balance reinforces the story of gradual slowdown with policy support moderating the pace of the slowdown. There is nothing in this set of data to change our view that fears of a hard-landing are overdone.
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By Bevan Graham
on 21 March 2016 12:13 p.m.
March meetings of the world’s major developed central banks are now behind us with one becoming less hawkish, one doing nothing and one firing a bazooka.  That combination has been enough to ease some of the concerns about the outlook for the global economy and has contributed to the recent rally in risk assets.  An important consideration however is with money policy already very easy, how much more effective can central banks be?
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By Bevan Graham
on 15 March 2016 12:41 p.m.
With little or no chance of an interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve this week, all eyes will be on the projections for interest rates as indicated by the infamous dots in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).  The March SEP will be released with the FOMC statement following their two day meeting this week.
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By Bevan Graham
on 10 March 2016 12:48 p.m.
While the case for further stimulus has been building, we didn’t think the RBNZ would cut again – at least not yet.  The Bank today took the path of least resistance, and probably least regret, and cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to a new record low of 2.25%. 
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 29 February 2016 12:53 p.m.
If it was just about latest wage and inflation data the FOMC would be tightening in March.  Both are clearly trending higher with the Committee's preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator, now also heading upwards.   A larger than expected rise in January took the annual rate of increase to 1.7%.  The latest FOMC Summary of Economic Projections didn’t expect core PCE inflation to reach 2.0% until 2018.
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By Bevan Graham
on 15 February 2016 01:24 p.m.
Our view is continued improvement in the US labour market will support solid consumer spending and keep the economy on track for another year of modest growth.  Latest labour market indicators including the JOLTs and NFIB surveys remain solid and jobless claims dipped lower again, supporting the argument the weakness of the past few weeks in that series may have been due to seasonal adjustment issues.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 08 February 2016 01:28 p.m.
After another batch of generally soft US data during last week all eyes were on Friday’s payrolls data, particularly for hints about the next move in US interest rates.  As it turned out the signals were mixed.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 17 March 2016 02:28 p.m.
December 2015 quarter GDP growth came in at +0.9% for the quarter, stronger than both market and RBNZ expectations that had gravitated to an expected increase of +0.7%. Annual average growth for calendar 2015 was +2.5%.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 14 April 2016 05:50 a.m.
There have been a number of mysteries in the evolution of the US labour market post the Great Recession. Two that remain, and were only ever going to be resolved as the cycle matured, are the relatively low level of labour productivity growth and the significant trend decline in the labour participation rate.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 18 April 2016 06:02 a.m.
The March 2016 quarter CPI came in a touch higher than market but bang on Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) expectations.  Headline inflation rose 0.2% for an annual rate of 0.4%.  The annual rate is up from 0.1% in the year to December 2015.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 26 April 2016 06:15 a.m.
When the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) surprised the market with its decisions to cut interest rates in March, it flagged another rate cut was on the way. Usually we would say “just do it”, but the decision whether to cut again this week appears more finely balanced. So what are the things the Bank will be thinking about in the lead-up to Thursday…?
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By Bevan Graham
on 28 April 2016 06:30 a.m.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at its record low level of 2.25% this morning.  We had thought the recent strength in the exchange would be enough to see them pull the trigger.  Clearly not.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 04 May 2016 10:50 a.m.
As is usual with the plethora of data that comes with quarterly labour market releases, there was something for everyone in today’s data. That is best exemplified by the seemingly contradictory strong rise in employment, combined with a rise in the unemployment rate. The conclusion is, however, that the New Zealand labour market is in pretty good shape.
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By Bevan Graham
on 09 May 2016 11:10 a.m.
Growth in activity in the United Sates has been disappointingly soft since last 2015.  The question is whether the slowdown is real or whether it reflects transitory factors such as continued drag from prior strength in the exchange rate and the market volatility and resulting uncertainty at the start of the year. 
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By Rebekah Swan
on 20 May 2016 02:37 p.m.
"Dreams & Disasters: The Adara Story"
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By Bevan Graham
on 24 May 2016 08:35 a.m.
It’s that time of year again. Budgets have become pretty boring and routine things over the last few years, especially in countries that are in pretty good fiscal shape like New Zealand. But that tends to understate their role in the policy framework. Tax policy, spending and public investment are all important parts of the macro-economic framework within which business and households are operating and living.
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By Bevan Graham
on 26 May 2016 02:08 p.m.
Budget 2016 shows a country in good shape with a set of fiscal accounts that must be the envy of most governments around the world.
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By AMP Capital NZ Investment Team
on 07 June 2016 11:35 a.m.
As the US Dollar (USD) has strengthened in recent weeks, its strength against the Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY) logically has responded in kind and the CNY fell, moving from about 6.45 at the end of March to about 6.58 at the end of May (yes, that’s a ‘big’ move for the USDCNY). The latest “devaluation” of the CNY is driving some commentators to dredge up memories of last year where all sorts of fears about a rapid devaluation and capital flight were stirred up. So what’s the outlook? And will this be a source of volatility for global markets again?
 
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By Bevan Graham
on 13 May 2016 01:46 p.m.
The May edition of Portfolio Watch provides you with an overview of global economies and markets as well as AMP Capital's asset strategy. Hosted by Bevan Graham and Keith Poore.


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By Bevan Graham
on 07 June 2016 06:35 a.m.
When the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) surprised markets by cutting interest rates in March a further interest rate reduction was built into the interest rate projections.  At that time we suggested it would be strength in the exchange rate that would be the catalyst for that to be delivered, while renewed strength in the housing market was the most likely factor that would lead to its demise.  
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By Bevan Graham
on 09 June 2016 08:10 a.m.
As expected the RBNZ left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25% this morning but retained an easing bias. There is one further cut flagged in the interest rate projections, though we still think it is only discomfort in the level of the exchange rate that may see that cut delivered.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 10 June 2016 09:24 a.m.
The June edition of Portfolio Watch provides you with an overview of global economies and markets as well as AMP Capital's asset strategy. Hosted by Bevan Graham and Keith Poore.
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By Bevan Graham
on 14 June 2016 07:59 a.m.
It’s been a bit of a roller coaster ride for the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) rate hike expectations over the last few weeks. Following all the volatility and angst at the start of this year, markets had moved to price in virtually no chance of a rate hike this year. Then as some of the activity data started to improve and following various statements and speeches from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants, a summer (June or July) rate hike looked to be on again.  But then came THAT payrolls report with markets now not pricing a full 25 basis points (bps) hike until December, and even then only just.
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By Vicky Hyde-Smith
on 14 June 2016 07:59 a.m.
The mention of the words “banking regulation” is enough to send anyone off to sleep. But without a doubt it has had, and continues to have, a significant impact on financial markets since the GFC. For this reason we can’t ignore it. 
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By Bevan Graham
on 20 June 2016 08:00 a.m.
It seemed to me there were always three certainties attached to the UK referendum on its membership of the European Union: the polls would close up as we got closer to the event, financial markets would reflect the uncertainty and nervousness, and that we would see an over-reaction in markets on the day, whatever the outcome.  
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By Warren Potter
on 21 June 2016 09:19 a.m.
The New Zealand Debt Management Office (NZDMO) first issued inflation-indexed bonds (IIBs) in 1995. However, the low volumes (the maximum outstanding being just NZ$2 billion), and lack of any follow up issuance, meant the inflation-linked bond market did not flourish at that time. Turnover in the bond waned and investor interest in the issue diminished to the point where it was largely a ‘hold to maturity’ investment for investors.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 25 June 2016 12:46 p.m.
Britain’s decision to exit the European Union (“Brexit”), followed swiftly by UK Prime Minister David Cameron’s resignation, creates considerable economic and political uncertainty. It will be some time before we know all the answers. The negative market reaction to the narrow victory (52% vs 48%) for the “Leave” camp has been exacerbated by markets going into the referendum expecting exactly the opposite outcome, a narrow “Remain” victory.
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By AMP Capital NZ Investment Team
on 27 June 2016 09:26 a.m.
0:10 - Bevan Graham discusses market reaction, the ongoing political uncertainty and how this will affect the UK economy, as well as the likely impact on the global and NZ economies.
03:03 - Grant Hassell comments on the reaction in bond markets and the potential opportunity in fixed income investment.
04:22 - Keith Poore looks at how markets may respond in the short term, and how investors should be patient and take advantage of ongoing volatility.
 
> Read more
By AMP Capital NZ Investment Team
on 29 June 2016 09:15 a.m.
AMP Capital's Investment Team provide a Brexit update for clients. They discuss how the decision has affected performance, any changes to portfolio strategy and their outlook moving forward.
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By AMP Capital NZ Investment Team
on 30 June 2016 10:43 a.m.
You may be surprised to hear that following the Brexit fallout global shares remain 10% above February lows.
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By AMP Capital NZ Investment Team
on 05 July 2016 08:48 a.m.
It’s during times like these that the old crisis indicators tend to get wheeled out – metrics such as credit spreads, sovereign CDS (credit default swaps), funding spreads, etc. And this time is no different. 
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 08 July 2016 09:14 a.m.
The July edition of Portfolio Watch provides you with an overview of global economies and markets as well as AMP Capital's asset strategy. Hosted by Bevan Graham and Callum Thomas.
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By Vicky Hyde-Smith
on 11 July 2016 07:00 a.m.
Last week Standard and Poor's (S&P) revised the outlook on the Australian sovereign rating (AAA) to negative. The local currency rating (AAA) has also been revised to negative outlook.
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By Bevan Graham
on 11 July 2016 08:41 a.m.
The US labour market bounced back with broad-based jobs growth in June, alleviating concerns of an economic slowdown in the United States. 
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By Bevan Graham
on 18 July 2016 09:14 a.m.
Growth in the Chinese economy was stable into the second quarter of the year, though there are signs of mounting headwinds, especially with respect to private sector investment.  Further policy easing seems inevitable despite receding deflationary pressures.
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By Bevan Graham
on 26 July 2016 12:35 p.m.
Last week the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) signalled more easing to come while the European Central Bank (ECB) reiterated its “readiness, willingness and ability to act”, should it be necessary.  Minutes from the latest Reserve Bank of Australia meeting indicated the door is wide open to another rate cut in August.  And while the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, it signalled a cut was likely in August in the post-Brexit wake.  This week the Bank of Japan is expected to ease monetary policy further and the US Federal Reserve is expected to hold fire on further interest rate normalisation.
> Read more
By Rebekah Swan
on 29 July 2016 08:55 a.m.
During this time of uncertainty nothing is certain, but it’s pleasing to see the growth and demand continue for responsible investing.
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By Bevan Graham
on 09 August 2016 07:16 a.m.
Brazil will be in the spotlight for the next couple of weeks as the spectacle that is the Olympics unfolds. Of course Brazil has already been under the spotlight for a while as one of the worst performing emerging economies over the last couple of years.
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By Bevan Graham
on 11 August 2016 09:34 a.m.
Bevan Graham and Warren Potter comment on today’s OCR decision.
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By Bevan Graham
on 12 August 2016 12:18 p.m.
Poor growth in labour productivity has been a defining feature of the US economic recovery since the Great Recession. While we’ve acknowledged it for some time now, that has come with a patiently optimistic outlook. If that optimism remains unrealised, it will soon be time to worry a bit more.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 12 August 2016 09:14 a.m.
The August edition of Portfolio Watch provides you with an overview of global economies and markets as well as AMP Capital's asset strategy. Hosted by Bevan Graham and Warren Potter.
> Read more
By AMP Capital NZ Investment Team
on 22 August 2016 11:47 a.m.
After a bit of a washout moment earlier this year, a distinct rise in optimism on emerging market (EM) equities has been seen. The renewed sense of optimism towards emerging market equities is something to keep an eye on if it gets too carried away, but for now a virtuous cycle is playing through.
> Read more
By Rebekah Swan
on 06 September 2016 12:21 p.m.
Every year the Commission for Financial Capability runs ‘Money Week’, an event aimed at encouraging New Zealanders to talk about money and develop greater financial capability. “Show me the money!” is the theme for this year’s event which runs from 5-11 September. 
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By Bevan Graham
on 09 September 2016 08:43 a.m.
The September edition of Portfolio Watch provides you with an overview of global economies and markets as well as AMP Capital's asset strategy. Hosted by Bevan Graham and guest presenter Matthew Goodson, Salt Funds Management.
> Read more
By Rebekah Swan
on 13 September 2016 08:55 a.m.
As part of our commitment to incorporating ESG issues into our investment decisions, AMP Capital was an early signatory to the United Nations-backed Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI). These principles aim to provide an internationally agreed framework to help institutional investors incorporate ESG issues into investment decision making and ownership practices. I recently attended the 10th annual PRI Conference in Singapore along with members of AMP Capital’s ESG team. Attended by over 600 delegates, the event had a busy agenda focusing on long-term ESG issues, which I talk about more in my video diary.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 16 September 2016 07:51 a.m.

0:24 Why are we seeing so much disruption in politics and what does it mean for the global economy?
4:10 Central banks around the world, including the RBNZ, are easing monetary policy to try and support demand.  Are we heading for trouble and is it working?
5:58 The NZD is very high at the moment making life difficult for exporters. Why is this and can the RBNZ control it with monetary policy?
7:12 The NZ economy is relatively strong, at least in term so of headline GDP growth.  But per capita is a different story; is productivity an issue for our economy?

 

> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 16 September 2016 08:27 a.m.
The last week has seen a re-rating of global monetary policy expectations, particularly in Europe.  The European Central Bank was less dovish than expected following its September meeting and the balanced interpretation of recent various FOMC member comments is that the Committee is  keen to push on with the normalisation of interest rates, though they will remain cautious.  Of the major developed central banks only the Bank of Japan continues to flag the possibility of further action along with the Bank of England in the wake of the Brexit referendum.
> Read more
By Vicky Hyde-Smith
on 19 September 2016 01:13 p.m.
00:00 What is the aim of the Fund?

00:44 What does the Fund invest in?

01:52 Investment style and approach

03:10 How do you assess who to lend to?

03:48 How do you manage risk?




> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 07 October 2016 06:19 a.m.
The US Federal Reserve, along with many other central banks, has a pretty challenging job right now given uncertainties about economic growth and, in particular, the future path of inflation.
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By Bevan Graham
on 17 October 2016 12:30 p.m.
We don’t expect the European Central Bank (ECB) will do anything new following its meeting later this week, but the messaging will be watched for any clues as to the Bank’s future monetary policy intentions, especially in respect to its asset purchase program (APP).
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 26 October 2016 06:34 a.m.
While the US Presidential election has the world’s political attention, there is another important event unfolding in Italy. The upcoming referendum on constitutional reform doesn’t have quite the same significance as the US election but it is important for the future of Italy, the world’s 8th largest economy, and has broader implications for the stability of the Eurozone.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 04 November 2016 07:19 a.m.
I tend to think of myself as a bit of a political junkie – generally speaking there’s nothing better than a good election. But I have to admit I’m pretty much over this one. This has been a somewhat bizarre campaign characterised by two of the most disliked presidential candidates in US electoral history. It has made the election campaign all about who was going to get to November 8th as the least disliked candidate. That’s not a particularly lofty aspiration and has contributed to a campaign that has focused largely on misogyny and inappropriate use of emails.
> Read more
By Rebekah Swan
on 08 November 2016 07:30 a.m.
As a responsible investment manager, AMP Capital is actively involved in a variety of industry initiatives around climate change. One example of this was the Investor Group on Climate Change (IGCC) and Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) roundtable I attended recently which discussed the ‘Future of Climate Disclosure’.
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By Bevan Graham
on 09 November 2016 10:43 a.m.
The 2016 US Presidential election has been the most brutal and divisive campaigns in living memory. It came at a time of significant unease in the US about lack of economic progress, stagnant real income growth, rising job insecurity, and a serious questioning of the United States’ place in the world.
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By Bevan Graham
on 18 November 2016 07:04 a.m.
As I said on election night, history is littered with populist politicians who became pragmatic leaders. One of the questions immediately post the election was whether it would be Donald Trump the populist who took up residence in 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue or Donald Trump the pragmatist.  
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 05 December 2016 10:06 a.m.
Since the Global Financial Crisis much attention around the world has focused on the concept of full employment – both where it is for any given economy and how quickly it would be achieved.  
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 06 December 2016 10:35 a.m.
0.36 What should we watch out for following Trump’s victory? 
2.46 Could we expect a Trump in NZ or around the world? 
4.28 Are we at the end of the low-interest rate environment? 
5.35 What are the flow-on effects for NZ? 
6.52 NZ economy – are there things we can expect in 2017? 
8.09 How is 2017 shaping up for the average Kiwi investor?
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By Bevan Graham
on 06 December 2016 08:07 a.m.
In a year of political surprises, the biggest surprise (at least for us Kiwis) ended up being home-grown. John Key’s decision to resign the leadership of the New Zealand National Party after 10 years and the Premiership after eight years adds considerable colour to the 2017 general election. An election is due in New Zealand by November 2017.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 20 December 2016 08:22 a.m.
What a year that was. Looking back now, 2016 seems like the year during which the world appeared likely to end on a number of occasions, but didn’t. 
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 19 January 2017 09:09 a.m.
December inflation data is expected to show annual headline inflation back inside the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ’s) 1-3% target band, the first time in it will have been inside the band since September 2014. Such an outcome will more than likely see the RBNZ confirm the easing cycle is over when it releases its next Monetary Policy Statement on February 9th.  The big question for markets now is how long will it be before we see an interest rate increase? The best answer to that right now is “it depends”.
> Read more
By Bevan Graham
on 07 February 2017 12:40 p.m.
One of the surprises of 2016 was the stability of the Chinese economy. Relative calm in financial markets along with a good dose of policy stimulus contributed to a strengthening in economic activity as the year progressed, to the extent that GDP growth came in bang on target for the calendar year.
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By Bevan Graham
on 16 February 2017 08:17 a.m.
Since the election markets have focused on the pro-growth fiscal and regulatory aspects of President Trump’s policy agenda, and have been largely immune (bemused?) by much of the news (noise?) being tweeted (or is it twittered?) out of Washington (or is it Manhattan?).
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By Bevan Graham
on 23 February 2017 08:50 a.m.
Politics always has the potential to unsettle and unnerve markets, even if it’s just temporarily. 2016 saw ‘Brexit’ and Trump, and into 2017 populist and nationalist political forces are seemingly on the rise everywhere.
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By Bevan Graham
on 02 March 2017 10:22 a.m.
On Monday interest rate futures markets were pricing a 35% chance of a rate hike from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at its March meeting. That seemed to us to be too low. Today, markets put that probability at 80%.  That seems to us to be too high. If you’re now thinking I’m never happy – you’re probably right.
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By Bevan Graham
on 13 March 2017 02:21 p.m.
A busy week ahead in markets with three key things to focus on: the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Dutch general election and fourth quarter 2016 GDP data for New Zealand.
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By Bevan Graham
on 14 March 2017 10:56 a.m.
From our recent Investment Outlook event in Auckland... Talking through the key global and New Zealand economic themes for 2017 and implications for investment markets.
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By Greg Fleming
on 14 March 2017 11:14 a.m.
From our recent Investment Outlook event in Auckland... What are the key themes we're focusing on in 2017 and how does that shape our asset strategy?
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By Vicky Hyde-Smith
on 14 March 2017 11:14 a.m.
From our recent Investment Outlook event in Auckland... Covering the outlook for 2017 from a fixed income perspective.
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By Matthew Hoult
on 14 March 2017 11:14 a.m.
From our recent Investment Outlook event in Auckland... What's the outlook for global listed real assets in 2017?
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By Rebekah Swan
on 30 March 2017 06:32 a.m.
The latest Corporate Governance report from AMP Capital is a great example of ESG research and shareholder engagement in action. This comprehensive report goes beyond simply reporting on the basics and provides some fascinating insights into the environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors which influence investments and company value. 
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By Bevan Graham
on 07 April 2017 11:00 a.m.
We have been urging caution on the reflation story.  Much of the increase in inflation recently has been driven by higher commodity prices and largely contained to headline inflation.  The conditions for genuine reflation, of the sort that central banks will choose to act on, are only met when core inflation is judged to be not only moving higher, but moving higher on a sustained basis.  Many developed economies are still well-short of this mark.  
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By Bevan Graham
on 20 April 2017 12:05 p.m.
March quarter inflation came in higher than expected, mostly due to higher food prices. The headline annual rate of 2.2% is the highest in five years and back into the top half of the target band. But it’s core inflation that is important for monetary policy and that’s suggesting the RBNZ still has time up their sleeve before they need to raise interest rates.  
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By Bevan Graham
on 27 April 2017 09:21 a.m.
Further light has been shed on US President Donald Trump's much vaunted tax plan, though specific details are still scant. The proposal includes reducing the statutory corporate tax rate from 35% to 15%. The proposal also plans to cut the so-called ‘pass through’ rate, the rate that mostly small firms pay via the individual tax code. A ‘one-off’ repatriation tax of 10% is also proposed. Absent is any suggestion of a border tax.
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By Bevan Graham
on 08 May 2017 10:09 a.m.
Emmanuel Macron’s win in the French Presidential election is good news for France and the Eurozone. Mr Macron appears to have secured around 66% of the vote to 34% for the National Front’s Marine Le Pen. 
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By Bevan Graham
on 11 May 2017 08:48 a.m.
As was universally expected the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.75% today.  
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By Bevan Graham
on 19 May 2017 07:08 a.m.
The Government will have been looking forward to Budget 2017 (Thursday May 25th) for a long time. They have navigated various fiscal challenges, including the Global Financial Crisis, and a string of seemingly never-ending natural disasters, including earthquakes in Christchurch and Kaikoura and more recently flooding in Edgecumbe.  
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By Greg Fleming
on 22 May 2017 07:44 a.m.
There has been a fair quantity of media coverage about emerging markets in recent months, much of it prompted by the worries over global trade arrangements that accompanied the Trump electoral victory in the USA six months ago. The US withdrawal from the Trans Pacific Partnership ratification process has caused some consternation in those developing economies aiming to increase their exports to the US consumer. On the other hand, the stay-of-execution that the Trump Administration has extended to NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) reassured observers that a swing to protectionism is likely to be erratic. The US Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, is still to present his report on the causes of the huge and persistent US trade deficit and how they might be combatted.
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By Rebekah Swan
on 23 May 2017 08:31 a.m.
I was excited recently to attend Philanthropy New Zealand’s biennial Summit which hosted the country’s largest gathering of leaders involved with philanthropy. The theme was ‘Innovate for Impact’ and focused on the increasingly crucial role of innovation in the success of organisations and communities.
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By Bevan Graham
on 25 May 2017 03:21 p.m.
Highlights
  • The New Zealand economy is expected to grow an average 3.1% per annum over the next five years
  • Solid growth underpins rising budget surpluses and falling debt as a percentage of GDP
  • Flagship announcements in Budget 2017 include a family incomes package, details of future infrastructure investment, and higher social spending across health, education, and law and order
  • This budget is fiscally stimulatory over the next two years, reinforcing our expectation that the next move in interest rates is up
  • The NZ Government’s bond tender programme for 2017/18 is unchanged at $7.0 billion
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By Rebekah Swan
on 26 May 2017 12:42 p.m.

There are many great people making a positive difference and worthwhile projects happening in the communities around us. However, we don’t always get the opportunity to celebrate the achievements of these unseen heroes and the good works in which they are involved. Therefore I am delighted that we have the opportunity to do so through our sponsorship of the AMP Capital People’s Choice Award for a community changemaker. 

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By Warren Potter
on 30 May 2017 08:30 a.m.
The announcement of the details of the future New Zealand government bond (NZGB) programme may not be the most exciting or widely reported part of the Budget on 25 May. However, the bond programme and its composition can have significant implications for fixed income markets in New Zealand. The 2017 budget was no exception and following the release of the details of this year’s budget there were two key take-outs for fixed income investors:
  1. The Government  has committed to maintaining a functioning government bond market; and
  2. The issuance of inflation indexed bonds would be set at NZ$1 billion of the planned NZ$7 billion issuance in the 2017/2018 budget year.
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By Bevan Graham
on 31 May 2017 04:49 p.m.
It’s been a 'mixed' few weeks for the US economy and the outlook for US monetary policy has become a tad murkier as market expectations of the number of Fed rate hikes this year have waxed and waned. At the time of writing, markets are pricing in about one-and a half rate increases by year-end, 10-year Treasuries are at the bottom of their recent range and the US dollar index (DXY) is at its weakest since before the election in November last year.  
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By Bevan Graham
on 12 June 2017 09:43 a.m.
There seems to be a shortage of political judgement is the UK Conservative party. First, then pro-EU Prime Minister David Cameron calls a referendum of the UK's membership of European Union. Fail. Then, new Prime Minister Theresa May calls an election aimed at strengthening her hand in the lead-in to the start of Brexit negotiations and to crush the Labour Party. Epic fail.
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By Bevan Graham
on 15 June 2017 11:52 a.m.
Two key pieces of economic news out this morning with the US Fed raising its benchmark interest rate and March-quarter GDP growth numbers for New Zealand released.
  • Watch the video for my thoughts.
  •  
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By Bevan Graham
on 03 July 2017 08:46 a.m.
The question I have been asked most frequently since the Great Recession is various takes on “Will central banks ever be able to end all of this extraordinary stimulus, and how will they get out of it?” The answer has always been the same: “Yes and cautiously"
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By Rebekah Swan
on 02 August 2017 08:45 a.m.
It’s great to see that more and more New Zealanders are embracing the concept of responsible investing, with record growth in this type of investment over the past year. This is the finding of the latest Benchmark Report released by the Responsible Investment Association Australasia (RIAA) which showed ‘core’ responsible investment in New Zealand increased from $1.6 billion in 2015 to $42.7 billion at the end of 2016.
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By Bevan Graham
on 10 August 2017 10:49 a.m.
The RBNZ left interest rates unchanged today and resisted temptation to turn dovish following recent developments. The Bank is firmly focussed on the medium term outlook and in that respect capacity constraints are increasing and inflation will head higher in time. That means the next move in interest rates is up, but not for a while.
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By Rebekah Swan
on 21 August 2017 08:35 a.m.

It can take relatively little effort for investment managers to give the appearance of being concerned about responsible investment issues. But it takes more than glossy marketing material, membership of an industry group or simple rhetoric to be a truly responsible investment manager.

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By Bevan Graham
on 22 August 2017 07:47 a.m.
A key theme for this year was the seemingly inevitable divergence in monetary policy among the key developed economies as the year progressed. In our outlook series at the start of the year we warned about not being overly swayed by the direction of headline inflation. This is because base effects were likely to see headline measures move higher as prior falls in commodity prices fell out of the annual calculation and were replaced by higher commodity prices.
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By Bevan Graham
on 13 September 2017 08:59 a.m.
Chief Economist Bevan Graham and special guest (David Farrar Kiwiblog, Curia Market Research) provide a preview of the 2017 General Election. Together they discuss the current state of the polls, what issues seem to be the most compelling for voters, the key seats to watch on election night, possible coalition configurations, the key policy positions of the parties and how markets are likely to react after the event.
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By Greg Fleming
on 20 October 2017 07:19 a.m.

The announcement of the New Zealand First party’s decision to join the Labour party in coalition government with Green Party support has ended almost a month of uncertainty, and results in a verdict in favour of change, rather than allowing for cautious continuity.

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