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GDP growth underwhelms in Japan and the Eurozone

18 August 2015
Eurozone, GDP, Germany, Japan

I’ve warned all year about not getting too carried away with heightened expectations of growth in the Eurozone and Japan.  That caution has been rewarded with underwhelming June quarter growth for both.  Sure Japan beat expectations (-1.6% quarter on quarter (qoq) annualised vs -1.9% expected) but only because the economy contracted less than expected.  And while the Eurozone posted modest growth in the quarter (0.3% qoq), it and its three largest constituent parts (Germany, France and Italy) all fell short of expectations.

At this stage we don’t have a breakdown of Eurozone-wide growth but prior releases of retail sales suggests consumption was a likely solid contributor to growth over the quarter and we expect exports would have been okay for some, especially Germany.  However indications from the respective national statistical agencies are that business investment was weak in at least France and Germany.

To be fair, annual growth of 1.2% for the year to June is the strongest since September 2011, but it’s hardly shooting the lights out.  Easy monetary conditions should continue to support a further cyclical upswing via the low exchange rate, low interest rates while the TLTRO (targeted longer-term refinancing operations) will continue to support stronger credit growth.

Eurozone GDP
Percent change

Source: Eurostat and AMP Capital

The question for the European Central Bank (ECB) is whether growth becomes strong enough to lift inflation from its current 'unusually low' level, let alone maintain it at close to their 2% target.  Until they are of that view, expect the central bank to continue its programme of sovereign bond purchases.

A contraction in Japan Q2 growth was widely expected.  Consumption was weak over the quarter, despite better labour market data, and exports were weaker still.  Capital expenditure also posted a small negative (although this could yet be revised up and came after a solid Q1).  The only positive surprise was inventories which posted a small positive contribution where a negative had been expected following the significant inventory build in the first quarter.  But that will simply serve to suppress future production.

Looking ahead, we think consumption will look a bit stronger next quarter while there are pluses (US) and minuses (China) for exports.  And stronger capex remains a pre-condition for any sustained pick-up in growth.  I’ve got a rebound to 2% growth penciled in for Q3.  The Bank of Japan lowered their growth and inflation forecasts recently but they are likely still too optimistic on both fronts making further monetary easing likely.

This blog post has been prepared to provide general information and does not constitute 'financial advice' for the purposes of the Financial Advisors Act 2008 (Act). An individual investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the information available in the relevant Product Disclosure Statement and seek professional advice. While every care has been taken in the preparation of this document, AMP Capital Investors (New Zealand) Limited and the AMP Group (together, 'AMP') make no guarantee that the information supplied is accurate, complete or timely and do not make any warranties or representations in respect of results gained from its use. The information is not intended to infer that current or past returns are indicative of future returns. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of AMP. These views are subject to change depending on market conditions and other factors.

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